Analysts Predict $200K Bitcoin Amid Election Uncertainty

Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, investment firm Bernstein remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, projecting a valuation of $200,000.

Substantial Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs

Leading up to the highly anticipated presidential election, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced significant outflows, marking their second-largest withdrawal day on record. On November 4, just a day before the election, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals totaling $541.1 million. This trend suggests that institutional investors may be apprehensive about a potential Trump victory, which is generally viewed as bullish for Bitcoin's price.

The largest outflow occurred on May 1, when ETFs saw $563.7 million withdrawn following a 10.7% drop in Bitcoin's price over the preceding week.

Market Sentiment and Predictions

CNBC's Jim Cramer highlighted that Wall Street's trading on Monday reflected investor sentiment leaning towards a potential victory for Vice President Kamala Harris. Industries likely to benefit from a Harris presidency saw a noticeable uptick, attributed to a recent poll showing Harris leading 47% to 44% in Iowa, a state traditionally favoring Trump.

Bernstein's Bitcoin Forecast

Despite the prevailing narrative suggesting Bitcoin's fate is tied to the U.S. election, Bernstein insists that Bitcoin's price targets remain unchanged, regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins. Earlier this month, Bernstein's analysts described a Bitcoin price of $200,000 before 2026 as a "conservative" estimate.

However, the report acknowledged that market sentiment could be affected in the short term, as Trump is perceived as the pro-crypto candidate, while Harris has a more cautious stance on cryptocurrency.

If Trump wins, Bernstein's short-term projection places Bitcoin's price target between $80,000 and $90,000 in the coming weeks. Conversely, a Harris victory could lead to a decline in Bitcoin's price, potentially dropping to $50,000.

Macroeconomic Factors Post-Election

Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, shared similar views in a recent discussion. He noted that while Trump's campaign has provided tailwinds for Bitcoin, broader macroeconomic factors are more influential in driving prices.

Hadick explained that recent months have seen an increase in liquidity and a resurgence in quantitative easing. He believes that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is tied to these macroeconomic conditions rather than the election outcome.

While acknowledging the potential for increased volatility with a Harris presidency, Hadick expressed optimism about the U.S. economy's prospects, suggesting that the narrative of a soft landing is still plausible, indicating a shift away from recession fears.